Australian Supply Chain Stress Index — October 2026: 67 (High)
Updated: 3 days ago
The Australian Supply Chain Stress Index is 67 out of 100 (High) as at 14 October 2026. That is up from 64 in September and level with April's 12-month peak. The pressure is coming from the fuel crisis and freight costs, not from a shortage of goods: diesel averaged 283 cents a litre, container rates out of Shanghai are up 136% in a year, and road fuel levies have passed 30%.
Key takeaways
Index: 67/100, High band. Supply chain sub-score 67, logistics sub-score 68.
Energy & fuel is the most stressed pillar at 89 (Severe). Diesel is up 53% on a year ago.
Freight costs are up on every mode: sea, air, road and rail.
Goods are still moving. China's deliveries are on time and Port of Melbourne had its busiest month of the past year in August.
Holding stock costs more: the RBA cash rate is 4.60%, the highest since November 2011.
What is the Australian Supply Chain Stress Index?
The Australian Supply Chain Stress Index is a monthly measure of supply chain and logistics risk for Australian businesses, published by Supply Logis. It combines public indicators of global shipping chokepoints, trade policy uncertainty, oil and diesel prices, freight rates by mode (sea, air, road and rail) and domestic business conditions into one score from 0 (calm) to 100 (crisis).
Readings fall into four bands: 0–25 Low, 26–50 Elevated, 51–75 High and 76–100 Severe. The full breakdown, with 12-month trend lines for every indicator, is on the live stress index dashboard.
October 2026 reading at a glance
Measure | Score | Band | Weight |
Composite index | 67 | High | 100% |
Energy & fuel | 89 | Severe | 25% |
Freight & logistics cost | 79 | Severe | 30% |
Global supply & chokepoints | 45 | Elevated | 25% |
Domestic capacity & finance | 51 | High | 20% |
How has the index moved month on month?
Twelve months ago the index was calm. It read 10 in October 2025 and stayed between 10 and 17 until February 2026. It jumped to 40 in March, when the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed, and peaked at 67 in April. It eased to 45 in June as oil prices fell back, then rose every month since: 48 in July, 55 in August, 64 in September and 67 in October.
Monthly readings, October 2025 to October 2026: 10, 12, 17, 12, 16, 40, 67, 58, 45, 48, 55, 64, 67.
Why is supply chain stress rising in Australia?
1. The fuel crisis: diesel and oil
The national average retail diesel price was 283.0 cents a litre in the week to 11 October 2026 (Australian Institute of Petroleum), up from about 185 cents a year earlier. The official Brent crude spot price was US$125.44 a barrel on 6 October (US Energy Information Administration). Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about a fifth of the world's oil, averaged 2.5 vessel crossings a day in early October against about 70 before the conflict (IMF PortWatch).
2. Freight costs are up on every mode
Sea: the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index was 3,664 on 9 October, up 136% in a year. The Drewry World Container Index was US$4,351 per 40ft container, up 139%.
Air: global air cargo spot rates averaged US$3.10/kg in September, up 20% (Xeneta).
Road: Team Global Express raised its road fuel levy to 30.2% from 12 October, against 10.5% a year ago. StarTrack's parcel fuel surcharge is 22.2% in October and is set at 24.2% for November. ABS road freight producer prices rose 17.6% over the year to the June quarter.
Rail: ABS rail freight producer prices rose 7.4% over the year to the June quarter.
3. Money and currency costs
The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September, its fourth increase in 2026, which raises the cost of financing inventory. The Australian dollar slipped to US$0.696 on 13 October, making US-dollar-priced imports dearer.
Is there a supply chain disruption in Australia?
Not in the sense of empty shelves. Physical supply is holding up. China's manufacturing PMI shows supplier delivery times steady at 50.1 and new export orders at 50.0 in September. Traffic through the Strait of Malacca, the main sea lane between Asia and the Middle East, averaged 232 vessels a day in early October, only about 4% below its pre-conflict level (IMF PortWatch). Trade policy uncertainty has also eased: the Baker, Bloom & Davis index was 1,213 in August, less than half its level a year earlier. Port of Melbourne handled 323,301 TEU in August, its busiest month of the past year. The disruption is mainly to cost.
There are still pressure points. The New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index was 1.28 in September, well above normal. Red Sea transits through Bab el-Mandeb are down about a fifth on a year ago. Driver and operator job ads are 10% higher than a year earlier (Jobs and Skills Australia), and 825 transport, postal and warehousing companies entered external administration in the 12 months to September, up 6% (ASIC).
What does a High reading mean for Australian businesses?
A High reading (51–75) means expect suppliers and carriers to pass on costs, and allow for some missed delivery windows. Practical steps:
Audit fuel surcharges. Check how carriers calculate fuel levies against your contracts. With levies near 30%, a loose formula is expensive.
Re-forecast freight budgets. Base them on current sea, road and parcel rates, not last year's.
Re-cost safety stock. At a 4.60% cash rate, extra inventory costs more to hold. Keep buffers on critical lines and trim the rest.
Check carrier health. Transport insolvencies are at their highest in at least five years. Know your backup carriers before you need them.
Model the currency. Test landed costs at a lower Australian dollar.
What to watch before the November update
ABS producer price indexes for the September quarter, due 30 October: the next read on road and rail freight prices.
The RBA cash rate decision on 3 November.
Weekly AIP diesel prices: Brent futures near US$106 on 14 October suggest some relief could reach the pump if oil holds lower.
Strait of Hormuz transit counts (IMF PortWatch).
Frequently asked questions
What is the Australian supply chain stress index right now?
67 out of 100 (High) as at 14 October 2026. That is up from 64 in September and level with the 12-month peak of 67 reached in April 2026.
Why are freight costs rising in Australia?
Fuel and shipping. Diesel averaged 283.0 cents a litre in the week to 11 October 2026, container spot rates out of Shanghai are up 136% in a year, and road carriers are charging fuel levies of around 30%. Road freight producer prices rose 17.6% over the year to the June quarter.
Is there a fuel crisis in Australia?
For businesses, the fuel crisis is showing up mainly as price. Diesel is about 53% dearer than a year ago because oil prices jumped after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed in March 2026. Australia imports most of its refined fuel, so it is exposed to global oil prices and the Australian dollar.
Why is diesel so expensive in Australia?
Australia imports most of its fuel, so diesel follows global oil prices and the exchange rate. The official Brent crude spot price was US$125.44 a barrel on 6 October 2026, about double a year earlier, and the Australian dollar has slipped to about US$0.70.
Will diesel prices go down in Australia?
Only if oil prices keep easing. Brent futures were trading near US$106 a barrel on 14 October 2026, below the official spot price of early October. Diesel usually follows oil with a lag of a few weeks, so the weekly Australian Institute of Petroleum price is the signal to watch.
What are container shipping costs from China to Australia doing?
Rising. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, which includes the Australia and New Zealand lane, was 3,664 on 9 October 2026, up 136% from October 2025. Individual lane rates are published to Shanghai Shipping Exchange members only, so the index uses the composite.
How often is the Australian Supply Chain Stress Index updated?
Monthly, around the middle of each month. The live dashboard is at supplylogis.com/stress-index.
How the index is calculated
Each indicator is scored from 0 to 100 on a straight line between a calm level and a crisis level. Scores are combined into four weighted pillars: Global supply & chokepoints (25%), Energy & fuel (25%), Freight & logistics cost (30%) and Domestic capacity & finance (20%). Within Global supply, the weights are: Global Supply Chain Pressure Index 35%, China PMI supplier delivery times 20%, Strait of Hormuz 15%, Bab el-Mandeb 10%, Strait of Malacca 10% and trade policy uncertainty 10%. The 12-month history is recalculated on the same basis each month.
The index was rebuilt in October 2026. Earlier readings, such as 66 (Strained) on 31 August, used a different method and are not directly comparable. On the new method, August 2026 reads 55.
Sources: IMF PortWatch, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Baker, Bloom & Davis Economic Policy Uncertainty (via FRED), US Energy Information Administration, China National Bureau of Statistics, Shanghai Shipping Exchange, Drewry, Xeneta, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia, NAB Monthly Business Survey, ASIC, Jobs and Skills Australia, Australian Institute of Petroleum, Port of Melbourne, Team Global Express and StarTrack.
Supply Logis helps Australian businesses cut freight cost leakage and plan inventory with confidence. If this month's reading raises questions about your own supply chain, get in touch.
